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- NextWeeksTrends November 4, 2024
NextWeeksTrends November 4, 2024
November Begins and The Election Looms
John Kiritsis
November 04, 2024
In partnership with
November Starts & The Election Looms
Hello, Traders!
October 2024 is officially in the books, closing slightly down and keeping October’s reputation as a down month in election years intact. This sets the stage for a potentially cautious November, particularly with U.S. elections taking place this week. Historically, markets can be volatile around election periods, and uncertainty following the election outcome could serve as a major catalyst for price swings this month.
Adding to this cautious sentiment, even legendary investor Warren Buffett is reportedly moving into cash, preparing for what he anticipates may be a near-term market correction. As we go over November’s usual historical trends, it’s crucial to view them through the lens of this heightened uncertainty and the possibility of a more defensive market stance in the near term.
November Historical Briefing
November remains in the thick of earnings season, and without an October crash, the market historically typically sees an upswing in the first few weeks. However, as Thanksgiving approaches, expect profit-taking to increase, often leading to a cooling-off period through the end of the month.
November Historical Biases
The first half of November into Thanksgiving there is usually an upside bias.
After Thanksgiving into end of month and first coupe days of Dec there is typically a sideways to downside leaning bias.
If there hasn’t been a market crash in October, then the first few weeks of November typically offer good opportunities to the upside.
Fall/Winter Seasonal Briefing (October - January)
This season tends to see strong directional movement in the market, often favoring the upside. While some years have been dominated by downward trends, the majority historically lean toward longer and more sustained upward momentum. During this period, it’s generally more effective to trade in line with the overall market direction, as these trends often last longer and provide stronger returns than in other times of the year. Counter-trend trades are typically less successful and are best avoided.
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Now, onto the trends…
Seasonal Trends
Symbol | Trend History | Start Date | End Date | Average % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MSTR | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-10 | 11-07 | +10.23% |
DIS | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-11 | 11-08 | +5.53% |
MMM | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-11 | 11-08 | +6.10% |
BANR | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-18 | 11-15 | +6.77% |
ARKO | Up 5 out of 5 past years | 10-22 | 11-19 | +13.57% |
JBL | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-25 | 11-22 | +6.16% |
GWW | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-25 | 11-22 | +8.52% |
SBUX | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-28 | 11-25 | +6.48% |
HD | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-28 | 11-25 | +4.20% |
AMD | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-28 | 11-25 | +11.63% |
SFM | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-01 | 11-14 | +7.11% |
NTRS | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-01 | 11-14 | +6.61% |
NXST | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-01 | 11-14 | +9.03% |
OLDFL | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-01 | 11-14 | +6.10% |
ABBV | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-04 | 12-02 | +4.71% |
LOW | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-08 | 11-22 | +4.09% |
NRTA | Up 8 out of 9 past years | 11-09 | 12-09 | +7.58% |
Earnings Trends
Symbol | Before Earnings | Average % | History | Earnings Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
WYNN | 11 Days | +6.43% | Up 17 out of 20 years | 11-07-2 |
In Summary:
The big catalyst to watch out for is obviously the US elections.
Historically, November’s opening weeks are typically strong, offering valuable entry points and potential for gains. By mid-month, however, the upside bias cools, with profit-taking likely to create sideways or slightly downward movement into the start of December. Stay alert to these seasonal trends, and use November’s setup to your advantage.
Happy Trading
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