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- 📈 Next Week’s Trends: Mid-November Momentum & Seasonal Stock Trends 📅
📈 Next Week’s Trends: Mid-November Momentum & Seasonal Stock Trends 📅
November Begins and The Election Looms
John Kiritsis
November 11, 2024
November’s Post Election Rally
Hello, Traders!
As we head into mid-November, the market is digesting the results of the US elections and what it means. Historically, the second week of November leans bullish, with earnings season in full swing and holiday optimism beginning to take hold.
Here’s what you need to know to stay prepared and capitalize on the current market landscape.
📉 November’s Mid-Month Market Trends
1. Mid-November’s Seasonal Upside Bias
Traditionally, the first two to three weeks of November favor the upside, with earnings season fueling positive sentiment. This bullish bias is also supported by an influx of consumer spending anticipation as retailers prepare for the holiday season. Retail and consumer discretionary sectors tend to see favorable movements, so keep an eye on these as the market heats up.
2. Key Sector Updates: Tech & Retail in Focus
Two major market stories this week have highlighted potential shifts in the tech landscape:
• Warren Buffett Reduces Apple Stake: Buffett’s recent move to cut his Apple holdings further may hint at a more cautious view on tech giants. This could signal an opportunity to watch for rotation into other sectors, like retail, where seasonal demand boosts sentiment.
• Nvidia Joins Dow Jones: Nvidia is set to replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on November 8, underscoring the tech sector’s evolving landscape. Nvidia’s inclusion could attract fresh interest, particularly as investors look to rebalance toward innovative tech plays in AI and semiconductor spaces.
Note: we have added semiconductor stocks MU and TSM on our seasonal trends watchlist. Both have historically seen consistent gains in the follow several weeks.
3. Upcoming Election Sentiment
With the recent U.S. elections now complete, short-term market reactions could introduce some further volatility. Historically, market fluctuations due to election results tend to be temporary. For now, staying aligned with November’s upside momentum while keeping an eye on potential election-related news could help you manage any swings.
4. Profit-Taking Around Thanksgiving
As the month progresses, expect to see some profit-taking closer to Thanksgiving, a trend that typically slows the market’s momentum into late November. This cooling-off period can set up for opportunities to re-enter on dips as we move into December’s often favorable seasonal trends.
Seasonal Trends
Symbol | Trend History | Start Date | End Date | Average % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BANR | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-18 | 11-15 | +6.77% |
ARKO | Up 5 out of 5 past years | 10-22 | 11-19 | +13.57% |
JBL | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-25 | 11-22 | +6.16% |
GWW | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-25 | 11-22 | +8.52% |
SBUX | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-28 | 11-25 | +6.48% |
HD | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-28 | 11-25 | +4.20% |
AMD | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 10-28 | 11-25 | +11.63% |
SFM | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-01 | 11-14 | +7.11% |
NTRS | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-01 | 11-14 | +6.61% |
NXST | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-01 | 11-14 | +9.03% |
OLDFL | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-01 | 11-14 | +6.10% |
ABBV | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-04 | 12-02 | +4.71% |
LOW | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-08 | 11-22 | +4.09% |
NRTA | Up 8 out of 9 past years | 11-09 | 12-09 | +7.58% |
MU | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-13 | 11-27 | +4.74% |
TSM | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 11-13 | 12-09 | +4.13% |
Earnings Trends
Symbol | Before Earnings | Average % | History | Earnings Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
None |
November Historical Briefing
November remains in the thick of earnings season, and without an October crash, the market historically typically sees an upswing in the first few weeks. However, as Thanksgiving approaches, expect profit-taking to increase, often leading to a cooling-off period through the end of the month.
November Historical Biases
The first half of November into Thanksgiving there is usually an upside bias.
After Thanksgiving into end of month and first coupe days of Dec there is typically a sideways to downside leaning bias.
If there hasn’t been a market crash in October, then the first few weeks of November typically offer good opportunities to the upside.
Fall/Winter Seasonal Briefing (October - January)
This season tends to see strong directional movement in the market, often favoring the upside. While some years have been dominated by downward trends, the majority historically lean toward longer and more sustained upward momentum. During this period, it’s generally more effective to trade in line with the overall market direction, as these trends often last longer and provide stronger returns than in other times of the year. Counter-trend trades are typically less successful and are best avoided.
📝 Key Takeaways for November 11 - 15
• Focus on Seasonal Sectors: Retail stocks and select tech names could benefit from the current market environment. As Nvidia joins the Dow, consider monitoring it alongside other holiday-driven sectors like retail and consumer discretionary.
• Stay Mindful of Election Volatility: While election-driven swings may cause short-term noise, the overall market trend leans bullish through mid-November.
• Prepare for Profit-Taking Post-Thanksgiving: Tighten stops as we approach Thanksgiving to lock in gains, as November’s typical profit-taking period approaches.
Happy Trading,
Next Weeks Trends
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