📈 Next Week’s Trends: The Week Ahead 5/27/2025

Can we expect a weak 2nd half of May?

Author

John Kiritsis
May 26, 2025

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Market Commentary: A Turning Point Ahead?

Last week’s market pullback unfolded almost exactly in line with our historical May trend forecasts—offering another reminder that seasonal patterns continue to carry weight, even in today’s macro-driven environment. As we approach the end of May, the key question is whether this recent weakness marks a brief pause or the start of a deeper correction.

This week could tip the scales.

With a shortened trading week following the U.S. holiday, attention turns to a trio of potentially market-moving events: Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, followed by preliminary GDP data and unemployment claims on Thursday. These releases could meaningfully sway investor sentiment, especially if they point to persistent inflation or a more hawkish stance from the Fed.

Adding to the uncertainty, former President Trump’s unpredictable tariff-related comments remain a wildcard that could inject sudden volatility into global markets.

Gold hitting record highs

The price of gold keeps heating up. If the record-breaking year of 2024 wasn't enough, gold hit a major historic 2025 milestone by crossing the $3,000/ounce threshold!

Here are 3 Key Reasons:

  1. Looming economic & political uncertainty

  2. Increasing central bank demand

  3. Rising National Debt - over $36 Trillion

So, could gold surge even higher?

According to a recent statement from Jeffrey Gundlach, famed American business man and investor… “Gold continues its bull market that we’ve been talking about for a couple of years, ever since it was down to $1,800.” He expects gold to reach $4,000/oz.

Is it time you learn more about precious metals?

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Current Seasonal Trends

Symbol

Trend History

Start Date

End Date

Average % (approx.)

DKNG

Up 5 out of 5 past years

5-25

6-23

+5.5%

AMAT

Up 9 out of 10 past years

4-28

6-05

+8%

AMD

Up 10 out of 10 past years

5-04

6-10

+13%

NVDA

Up 9 out of 10 past years

5-08

6-09

+18%

TSLA

Up 12 out of the past 14 years

5-15

6-16

+10%

SOXL

Up 9 out of 10 past years

5-20

6-23

+13%

X

Down 9 out of 10 past years

4-24

5-26

-11%

Seasonal Forecast

May Seasonal Briefing

Earnings season. Typically, a 50/50 month. The 1st half of the month, stocks typically rise as we finish up earnings. The 2nd half of the month expect heavy profit taking.

May Seasonal Biases

  • Upside bias first half of May.

  • Downside bias in 2nd half of May.

  • Mid to late May can often be filled with long term swing trade entry opportunities that can last into the summer time.

June Seasonal Briefing

Warnings season. Typically, a tough, tired (sluggish) acting market. Look for a potential rise between the 9th and 20th of the month. Overall the summer months can be very choppy or just dead, prepare yourself for either circumstance. The summer months typically have the lowest trading volumes for the year. Watch for entry points the last two or three days of the month.

June Seasonal Biases

  • Downside bias first half of June.

  • Second half of June typically is 50/50.

  • Keep and eye out for a potential rise in the market and good buying opportunities between the 9th - 20th (2nd - 3rd week) .

Summertime Seasonal Briefing (May 1 - October 1)

Summertime season: In this season, movements can become shallow in either direction. Trade-able movements may become less frequent and we often see swing trades end closer to the 1-week mark than “good swing trades” of 1-3 weeks. There can be periods of flat during this period where no obvious trades are available.

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Happy Trading,

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