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- 📈 Next Week’s Trends: The Week Ahead 5/12/2025
📈 Next Week’s Trends: The Week Ahead 5/12/2025
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John Kiritsis
May 12, 2025
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Market Outlook: Trade Developments and Seasonal Trends Align
With reports indicating that the U.S. and China are nearing agreement on a trade deal, the markets appear poised to continue their upward momentum this week. A strong finish to the first half of May would align with historical patterns of typical market behavior during this period.
From a seasonal standpoint, most trends are unfolding in line with expectations, reinforcing the reliability of historical market tendencies during this time of year.
Seasonal Trends
No new trends added this week.
Symbol | Trend History | Start Date | End Date | Average % (approximate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
X | Down 9 out of 10 past years | 4-24 | 5-26 | -11% |
AMAT | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 4-28 | 6-05 | +8% |
AMD | Up 10 out of 10 past years | 5-04 | 6-10 | +13% |
NVDA | Up 9 out of 10 past years | 5-08 | 6-09 | +18% |
TSLA | Up 12 out of the past 14 years | 5-15 | 6-16 | +10% |
Historical Stock Market Forecast
May Historical Biases
Upside bias first half of May.
Downside bias in 2nd half of May.
Mid to late May can often be filled with long term swing trade entry opportunities that last into the summer time.
May Historical Briefing
Earnings season. Typically, a 50/50 month. The 1st half of the month, stocks typically rise as we finish up earnings. The 2nd half of the month expect heavy profit taking.
Transitional Seasonal Briefing (May 1 - October 1)
Summertime Zone: In this zone, movements can become shallow in either direction. Trade-able movements may become less frequent and we often see swing trades end closer to the 1-week mark than “good swing trades” of 1-3 weeks. There can be periods of flat during this period where no obvious trades are available.
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Happy Trading,
Next Weeks Trends
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