📈 Next Week’s Trends: The Week Ahead 11/25/2024

November Historical Briefing

November remains in the thick of earnings season, and without an October crash, the market historically typically sees an upswing in the first few weeks. However, as Thanksgiving approaches, expect profit-taking to increase, often leading to a cooling-off period through the end of the month.

November Historical Biases

• The first half of November into Thanksgiving there is usually an upside bias. 

• After Thanksgiving into end of month and first couple days of Dec there is typically a sideways to downside leaning bias.

• If there hasn’t been a market crash in October, then the first few weeks of November typically offer good opportunities to the upside.

December Historical Briefing

December is warnings season. Expect profit taking to continue from November until sometime between the 5th and the 8th of December. December can be a good month (known as the “Santa Claus Effect” when it is). Market can be choppy. Look for buy entry points between the 15th and 22nd. The markets frequently suffer a “Christmas hangover” (downside weakness) to the end of the month. Look for entry points the last 2 or 3 days of the month.

December Historical Biases

• Around 5-8th upside bias up through Christmas . 

• Typically, around the 5th-8th of December sees good movement if the markets or individual stocks have been basically flat or slightly down since Thanksgiving.

• After Christmas to the 28-29th, downside bias.  29th into Jan, Upside Bias.

• The last few days of December and first few days of January usually can be very volatile and can offer good opportunities.

Fall/Winter Seasonal Briefing (October - January)

This season tends to see strong directional movement in the market, often favoring the upside. While some years have been dominated by downward trends, the majority historically lean toward longer and more sustained upward momentum. During this period, it’s generally more effective to trade in line with the overall market direction, as these trends often last longer and provide stronger returns than in other times of the year. Counter-trend trades are typically less successful and are best avoided.